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Options-Implied Probability
What the Deribit BTC and ETH options market implies about the probability of finishing above round price levels at the next few expiries — the same math a threshold-contract market (Kalshi, Polymarket) prices directly. Free, updated roughly every 10 minutes.
How to read this: Compare probability_above with a threshold contract's YES price on the same strike and time (a $0.62 YES is a 62% market price). P(between K1 and K2) = P(above K1) − P(above K2).
BTC Bitcoin
Expiry 2026-11-15 08:00 UTC (1.1h out)Forward $64,360.5
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $58,000 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 157.7% |
| $61,000 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 123.1% |
| $62,500 | 99.3% | 0.8% | 113.1% |
| $63,000 | 98.4% | 1.6% | 103.5% |
| $63,500 | 96.4% | 3.6% | 80.5% |
| $64,500 | 39.2% | 60.8% | 62.4% |
| $65,000 | 7.3% | 92.7% | 62.3% |
| $65,500 | 1.2% | 98.8% | 71.4% |
| $66,500 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 71.6% |
| $67,500 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 80.6% |
| $71,000 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 117.5% |
As of 2026-11-15T06:52:24.195Z
Expiry 2026-11-16 08:00 UTC (25.1h out)Forward $64,347.23
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $58,000 | 97.4% | 2.6% | 117.6% |
| $61,000 | 91.6% | 8.4% | 92.9% |
| $62,500 | 85.2% | 14.8% | 79.1% |
| $63,000 | 80.2% | 19.8% | 74.7% |
| $63,500 | 72.6% | 27.4% | 70.1% |
| $64,500 | 57.1% | 42.9% | 63.1% |
| $65,000 | 45.4% | 54.6% | 59.6% |
| $65,500 | 33.3% | 66.8% | 56.7% |
| $66,500 | 13.1% | 86.9% | 54.5% |
| $67,500 | 4.4% | 95.6% | 54.5% |
| $71,000 | 0.4% | 99.6% | 77.8% |
Expiry 2026-11-17 08:00 UTC (2.0d out)Forward $64,362.99
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $58,000 | 95.4% | 4.6% | 98.3% |
| $61,000 | 88.0% | 11.9% | 80.6% |
| $62,500 | 79.8% | 20.2% | 71.6% |
| $63,000 | 75.7% | 24.3% | 68.5% |
| $63,500 | 70.1% | 29.9% | 65.6% |
| $64,500 | 56.3% | 43.7% | 60.3% |
| $65,000 | 48.6% | 51.4% | 58.2% |
| $65,500 | 40.5% | 59.5% | 55.8% |
| $66,500 | 22.1% | 77.9% | 52.5% |
| $67,500 | 11.8% | 88.2% | 51.7% |
| $71,000 | 0.1% | 99.9% | 55.7% |
ETH Ethereum
Expiry 2026-11-15 08:00 UTC (1.1h out)Forward $1,791.22
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,600 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 192.9% |
| $1,700 | 99.7% | 0.3% | 173.4% |
| $1,750 | 98.3% | 1.7% | 119.7% |
| $1,800 | 29.6% | 70.4% | 71.2% |
| $1,850 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 87.0% |
| $1,900 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 117.6% |
| $1,950 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 126.9% |
As of 2026-11-15T06:52:25.852Z
Expiry 2026-11-16 08:00 UTC (25.1h out)Forward $1,791.06
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,600 | 96.8% | 3.2% | 137.3% |
| $1,700 | 89.6% | 10.4% | 105.5% |
| $1,750 | 77.5% | 22.4% | 90.0% |
| $1,800 | 52.9% | 47.1% | 77.2% |
| $1,850 | 22.0% | 78.0% | 71.3% |
| $1,900 | 5.3% | 94.7% | 72.1% |
| $1,950 | 1.3% | 98.7% | 79.5% |
Expiry 2026-11-17 08:00 UTC (2.0d out)Forward $1,791.46
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,600 | 94.5% | 5.5% | 116.2% |
| $1,700 | 85.5% | 14.5% | 92.2% |
| $1,750 | 73.8% | 26.2% | 81.8% |
| $1,800 | 53.4% | 46.6% | 72.5% |
| $1,850 | 28.0% | 72.0% | 68.6% |
| $1,900 | 10.5% | 89.5% | 66.5% |
| $1,950 | 4.2% | 95.8% | 69.8% |
Limitations
- Risk-neutral probability implied by Deribit option marks: the options market's price for the event, including its risk premium. Not a forecast and not a real-world probability.
- Settlement references differ: this is priced on Deribit's USD index and forwards, while prediction markets settle on their own reference (Kalshi's crypto contracts on CF Benchmarks indices, many Polymarket crypto markets on a Binance USDT pair — check each market's rules). Near the strike the basis matters.
- Targets before the nearest listed expiry use that expiry's smile (constant vol). Between expiries, total variance is interpolated in time.
- Strikes outside the listed range use the nearest listed vol (flat wing) and are flagged extrapolated: true.
- Deribit marks are model marks, not trades; illiquid strikes can lag.
Programmatic access
/api/v1/implied-prob/btcPaid x402 route — custom strikes and target time, BTC, JSON, $0.02 USDC/call./api/v1/implied-prob/ethPaid x402 route — custom strikes and target time, ETH, JSON, $0.02 USDC/call./llms.txtPlain-text catalog of every Kronos endpoint, for agents./openapi.jsonOpenAPI 3.0 specification (machine-readable).