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Options-Implied Probability
What the Deribit BTC and ETH options market implies about the probability of finishing above round price levels at the next few expiries — the same math a threshold-contract market (Kalshi, Polymarket) prices directly. Free, updated roughly every 10 minutes.
How to read this: Compare probability_above with a threshold contract's YES price on the same strike and time (a $0.62 YES is a 62% market price). P(between K1 and K2) = P(above K1) − P(above K2).
BTC Bitcoin
Expiry 2026-10-01 08:00 UTC (18.7h out)Forward $85,389
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $77,000 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 54.7% |
| $81,000 | 99.0% | 1.0% | 49.7% |
| $83,000 | 96.7% | 3.3% | 38.7% |
| $83,500 | 94.1% | 5.9% | 35.7% |
| $84,500 | 76.7% | 23.3% | 32.6% |
| $85,500 | 42.8% | 57.2% | 33.8% |
| $86,000 | 29.0% | 71.0% | 35.0% |
| $87,000 | 10.8% | 89.2% | 38.2% |
| $88,000 | 3.8% | 96.2% | 42.4% |
| $89,500 | 1.2% | 98.8% | 48.9% |
| $94,000 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 52.5% |
As of 2026-09-30T13:17:49.957Z
Expiry 2026-10-02 08:00 UTC (42.7h out)Forward $85,400.08
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $77,000 | 99.5% | 0.5% | 59.7% |
| $81,000 | 98.0% | 2.0% | 42.6% |
| $83,000 | 90.0% | 10.0% | 35.6% |
| $83,500 | 84.7% | 15.3% | 34.6% |
| $84,500 | 66.1% | 33.9% | 34.0% |
| $85,500 | 45.9% | 54.1% | 34.6% |
| $86,500 | 27.4% | 72.6% | 35.5% |
| $87,000 | 20.2% | 79.8% | 36.1% |
| $88,000 | 10.1% | 89.9% | 37.6% |
| $89,500 | 3.7% | 96.3% | 40.7% |
| $94,000 | 0.3% | 99.8% | 50.1% |
Expiry 2026-10-03 08:00 UTC (2.8d out)Forward $85,413.85
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $77,000 | 99.7% | 0.4% | 55.1% |
| $81,000 | 96.4% | 3.6% | 40.1% |
| $83,000 | 85.0% | 15.0% | 35.3% |
| $83,500 | 78.6% | 21.4% | 34.6% |
| $84,500 | 64.2% | 35.8% | 34.1% |
| $85,500 | 46.7% | 53.3% | 34.5% |
| $86,500 | 31.6% | 68.4% | 35.0% |
| $87,000 | 24.8% | 75.2% | 35.4% |
| $88,000 | 14.6% | 85.4% | 36.5% |
| $89,500 | 6.2% | 93.8% | 38.6% |
| $94,000 | 0.5% | 99.5% | 49.0% |
ETH Ethereum
Expiry 2026-10-01 08:00 UTC (18.7h out)Forward $2,731.38
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2,450 | 99.9% | 0.1% | 77.2% |
| $2,600 | 99.6% | 0.4% | 49.6% |
| $2,650 | 95.2% | 4.8% | 43.4% |
| $2,700 | 71.4% | 28.6% | 40.3% |
| $2,750 | 32.3% | 67.7% | 44.0% |
| $2,800 | 9.4% | 90.6% | 50.0% |
| $2,850 | 2.8% | 97.2% | 59.4% |
| $3,000 | 0.6% | 99.4% | 86.3% |
As of 2026-09-30T13:17:49.024Z
Expiry 2026-10-02 08:00 UTC (42.7h out)Forward $2,731.54
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2,450 | 99.4% | 0.6% | 70.9% |
| $2,600 | 94.9% | 5.1% | 50.4% |
| $2,650 | 85.4% | 14.6% | 45.6% |
| $2,700 | 64.3% | 35.7% | 43.8% |
| $2,750 | 37.8% | 62.2% | 45.0% |
| $2,800 | 18.1% | 81.8% | 47.6% |
| $2,850 | 8.2% | 91.8% | 51.8% |
| $3,000 | 0.9% | 99.1% | 67.2% |
Expiry 2026-10-03 08:00 UTC (2.8d out)Forward $2,731.98
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2,450 | 98.9% | 1.1% | 65.8% |
| $2,600 | 90.8% | 9.3% | 48.9% |
| $2,650 | 79.9% | 20.1% | 46.0% |
| $2,700 | 60.9% | 39.1% | 44.9% |
| $2,750 | 41.5% | 58.5% | 45.7% |
| $2,800 | 23.8% | 76.3% | 47.0% |
| $2,850 | 12.6% | 87.4% | 49.5% |
| $3,000 | 1.9% | 98.0% | 60.3% |
Limitations
- Risk-neutral probability implied by Deribit option marks: the options market's price for the event, including its risk premium. Not a forecast and not a real-world probability.
- Settlement references differ: this is priced on Deribit's USD index and forwards, while prediction markets settle on their own reference (Kalshi's crypto contracts on CF Benchmarks indices, many Polymarket crypto markets on a Binance USDT pair — check each market's rules). Near the strike the basis matters.
- Targets before the nearest listed expiry use that expiry's smile (constant vol). Between expiries, total variance is interpolated in time.
- Strikes outside the listed range use the nearest listed vol (flat wing) and are flagged extrapolated: true.
- Deribit marks are model marks, not trades; illiquid strikes can lag.
Programmatic access
/api/v1/implied-prob/btcPaid x402 route — custom strikes and target time, BTC, JSON, $0.02 USDC/call./api/v1/implied-prob/ethPaid x402 route — custom strikes and target time, ETH, JSON, $0.02 USDC/call./llms.txtPlain-text catalog of every Kronos endpoint, for agents./openapi.jsonOpenAPI 3.0 specification (machine-readable).